The inflation and productivity relationship in Poland (p.11-33) ![[Fichier PDF]](images/pdf.png) |
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| by |
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| Evangelia Papapetrou, University of Athens |
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| Keywords : Transition economies, inflation, productivity, time series analysis |
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| JEL classification : P20, E31, J24, C32 |
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| Abstract |
| Poland belongs to the most advanced group of transition economies. Poland has succeeded in stabilizing its economy, yet inflation has proven resilient. This paper examines the causality issue, in a Granger-temporal causal sense, between price level and productivity in a bivariate and multivariate context in Poland over the period 1991:I-1998:IV. The empirical results suggest that a bivariate relationship between inflation and productivity is spurious. When we control for fluctuations of monetary policy on the bivariate relationship between price level and productivity the evidence suggests that Grangercausation must exist in at least one direction. Vector error-correction model estimation shows that productivity growth and inflation are econometrically endogenous variables and bi-directional causality from inflation to productivity growth and vice versa may exist. |
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| The russian economy is facing a competitiveness and efficiency challenge (p.35-61) |
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| by |
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| Andrei Klepach, Development Center (Moscow, Russia) |
| Eric Brunat, Russian-European Centre for Economic Policy and University of Savoie (France) |
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| Keywords : Transition economies, competitiveness, efficiency |
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| JEL classification : O47, L52, P27 |
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| Abstract |
| The paper analyses the components of the competitiveness of Russian manufactured goods. This competitiveness started to decline after 1999, following the 1998 crisis and the strong devaluation of the Ruble. The decline in competitiveness has been clearly due to appreciation of the ruble and increasing labour costs. Nevertheless, the rate of real Ruble appreciation is currently not the major factor affecting changes in competitiveness of Russian goods. The key issues are whether factors of production and management are used efficiently, how good is the quality of the products and how new they are, and to what extent they meet modern international requirements. The pressure to be competitive is measured by competition intensity. Regression analysis shows it is mainly dependant on the number of the firms on a market. Apparent productivity growth did not improved competitiveness because it relies mainly on labour cuts. However at the end, it relies also on higher rate of use of production factors. Productivity gains benefited mainly to wages. This provides a blurred image of demand-pulled productivity increases instead of supply pushed productivity gains thanks to modernization. Analyzing the models of industrial policy or competitiveness and productivity enhancement policy, the authors argue that the modernizing the economy and the public sector as well as sustainable fast growth cannot be met with existing institutions and policies pursued. Liberalization of the economy should be complemented by active industrial policy aimed at development of competitive medium and high-tech production facilities. |
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| Textiles in central eastern europe and russia: a comparative analysis in the european context (p.63-88) |
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| by |
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| Doris Hanzl, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW) |
| Peter Havlik, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW) |
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| Keywords : Transition economies, textiles, Russia, Central and Eastern Europe |
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| JEL classification : F13, F21, L67 |
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| Abstract |
| This paper deals with the situation of the textile sector in Russia and Central Eastern Europe, as well as with their EU trade in textiles. It gives a comparative analysis of the main sectoral economic trends, in particular regarding production and employment, factors affecting the competitiveness and the key features of the trade with the EU. The sector plays a relatively important role in economies of most CEECs (especially regarding employment and foreign trade), but is much smaller in Russia. There is also a significantly lower output per employee in Russia: the labour productivity is about 20% below the CEECs’ level. Textile sector exports from the CEECs take a prominent position on the European market, whereas those from Russia are extreme small. While the sector records trade surpluses with the EU in the CEECs, Russia has a large trade deficit in this field. The price and quality of Russian textile exports to the EU are worse than in most other CEECs, and generally worse than average EU imports of this industry. Recently, prices of textile exports from the CEECs have improved, whereas those from Russia deteriorated. The sector is not very much affected by EU’s acquis communautaire, except for parts of the environmental acquis. Russian textile sector does not seem to have a great growth potential; it is also not very interesting for foreign investors. |
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| The ex-soviet and russian tanker and cargo fleet’s magnitude (1975-2001) (p.89-122) |
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| by |
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| Athanassia Th. Xenaki, University of the Aegean (Greece) |
| Athena Belegri-Roboli, National Technical University of Athens |
| George E. Economakis, University of the Aegean (Greece) |
| John G. Milios, National Technical University of Athens |
| Maria S. Markaki, National Technical University of Athens |
| Panayotis G. Michaelides, National Technical University of Athens |
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| Keywords : ex–Soviet, Russia, tanker, cargo, flagged fleet owed fleet |
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| JEL classification : P26 , N74 |
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| Abstract |
| The present paper examines the relationship of the ex-Soviet and the Russian fleet of tankers and cargoes, with respect to the world trade of oil and bulk loading. We study the extent to which, the Russian fleet followed the patterns of the world trade and we investigate the determinants of the tanker and cargo fleets’ performance. The main conclusion is that the Russian fleet faces problems related to Russia’s severe economic situation and is rapidly aging. As a result, the Russian fleet is relatively shrinking and the solutions driving to a positive future seem to be linked to Russia’s political and economic development. |
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