Article

 

AN AGRICULTURAL POLICY ANALYSIS SIMULATOR: THE CASE OF ALBANIA

by

Karadeloglou P., University of Athens

Mergos G., University of Athens

Panethimitakis P. , University of Athens

Stoforos C., University of Athens

JEL classification : P230, P270

Abstract

Studying the agricultural price policy system under transition to market has merit from a theoretical as well as a policy point of view. This paper presents a synthetic (econometric and simulation) model for the agricultural sector of Albania. Three different policy simulations related with both the evolution of income and of prices were constructed. The first scenario was related to a successful developing effort of the Albanian economy increasing thus the income by more than the percentage assumed in the baseline; the second scenario assumes that in the course of price liberalisation, relative prices undergo a significant change; finally, the last scenario assumes that there will be a sharp increase in the price of the fertiliser effecting thus both the cultivated area and the yield. The analysis specifies policy options for the Albanian economy able to cause important changes on production, consumtion and on the self-sufficiency of the country.